Iran's Unlikely Sanctions

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright March 4, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                                

             U.S. plans to win more potent sanctions against Iran for its nuclear enrichment program grew less likely, as China, Brazil, Turkey and Lebanon signaled they’re not inclined toward more action.  President Barack Obama hoped he could win enough support in the Security Council for Iran’s defiance of more open inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.  White House officials secretly wished that they could persuade enough Security Council members to go along with more severe sanctions.  They once hoped that veto-wielding members, like Russia and China, wouldn’t deliberately block more sanctions because of ongoing business relationships. With Brazil, Turkey and Lebanon opposed to new sanctions, the Persian Nation isn’t like to face more Security Council sanctions, leaving Iran free to continue enriching uranium unchecked.

            When Iran’s secret nuclear enrichment site was found Oct. 25, 2009 in the ancient city of Qom, the U.S. and Europeans were determined to get more sanctions.  Since then, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has defied the IAEA and thumbed his nose at possible new sanctions, believing Iran was well within its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.  Like Pakistan calling its bomb the “peacemaker,” Ahmadinejad has repeatedly said Iran seeks atomic power for “peaceful” purposes.  Former President George W. Bush couldn’t make any headway getting Iran to back down from its enrichment program.  Now that Tehran added nearly 10,000 centrifuges, it’s clear to nuclear experts that it seeks to weaponize its stockpile.  Ahamdinejad rejected Nov. 18, 2009 a U.S.-and European Union-brokered U.N. proposal to enrich uranium outside Iran

            Signaling more defiance, Ahmadinejad met recently in Damascus with Hezobllah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah , a hero for battling Israel in the summer of 2006 to a standoff.  “Lebanon for internal reason is unlikely to vote for a sanction resolution,” said a senior Lebanese official with ties to Hezbollah.  Turkey and Brazil recently abstained from a test vote on the IAEA board for more sanctions on Iran.  Cobbling together the votes for more sanctions on the U.N. Security Council got more difficult Feb. 18 when Obama defied China and hosted Tibet’s exiled spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, at the White House.  It also didn’t help U.S. chances with Turkey when the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Relations Affairs Committee voted today that the 1915 massacre of 1.5 million Armenians by the Ottoman Turks was indeed a “genocide,” something denied by Turkey.

            While the U.S. continues to heavily lobby China and Russia, strong business ties to Tehran mitigate against any new sanctions.  Most non-aligned countries in South America, Africa and Asia congratulate Tehran for its nuclear development.  “It’s not prudent to push Iran against a wall,” said Brazilian President Lula da Silva, reluctant to go along with a new round of U.S.-backed U.N. sanctions.  “The prudent thing is to establish negotiations,” despite knowing full well the numerous failed attempts to negotiate with Tehran.  Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, visiting Brazil, tried to win Brazil’s support for more sanctions.  “I want for Brazil the same thing I want for Iran, to use the development of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes,” said Lula da Silva, planning to visit Tehran in May.  “If Iran agrees with that, Iran will have the support of Brazil.”

            U.S. and EU officials fight an uphill battle to restrain Iran from developing nuclear weapons.  Ahamadinejad and Supreme Religious Leader Ali Khameni have made it clear they view Iran as a nuclear power.  Iran asserts its rights under the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treat to complete the nuclear fuel cycle, including making weapons-grade uranium.  Da Silva knows that Iran’s eventual mastery of the atomic fuel cycle will lead to weapons grade uranium.  He also doesn’t think its appropriate for the world’s biggest nuclear power to lecture the developing world about the evils of atomic energy.  Tehran knows, like Pakistan experienced with India, that getting the bomb neutralizes superior U.S. military might in the Persian Gulf.  After years of unchecked nuclear proliferation, the U.S. finds itself behind the 8-ball trying to restrain, by whatever means, Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

            Whether admitted to or not, the clock has run out on containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.  Having developed its atomic industry for the last 20 years, it’s unrealistic for any diplomatic process—or threat of military action—to reverse Iran’s nuclear goals.  Attempts by the U.S. and EU to pressure the U.N. Security Council for harsher sanctions have backfired.  Non-aligned countries, like Brazil, Turkey, Lebanon, etc., admire Iran’s fledgling nuclear industry and would like to follow suit. Even Turkey, with its diplomatic ties to Israel, has tried establish itself as a power broker in the Middle East, discouraging Israel from taking unilateral action.  Neither China nor Russia, with all its talk of seeing Tehran comply with IAEA inspections, will endorse tough new sanctions against its preferred trading partner.  Iran, not the U.S. or U.N., is in the driver’s seat when it comes to enriching uranium.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.