Netanyahu's Big Mouth

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Feb.15, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                                

               Pushing for tough sanctions against Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu told Russian President Dmitry Medvedev today he favored sanctions over military action against Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Whether Bibi knows it or not, his public lobbying backfired, antagonizing Russia and China, two veto-wielding members on the U.N. Security Council.  It didn’t help matters that President Barack Obama plans to host Tibet’s exiled spiritual leader Dalai Lam at the White House Feb. 18, sticking it to Communist China.  Netanyahu thinks his public calls for more sanctions help his cause but in reality gives Russian and Chinese leaders second thoughts about joining a U.S.-backed plan in the Security Council.  Russia has been a major supplier of Iran’s nuclear technology, earning over $1 billion to build a heavy water reactor in Bushehr.

            Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stepped up the rhetoric calling Iran a military dictatorship, urging the Security Council to join a U.S.-backed plan for tougher sanctions.  Speaking at the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared Iran a “nuclear power,” while his Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia beat and arrested pro-Democracy protestors.  Speaking to university students in Doha, Qatar, Clinton warned that Iran was dominated by the Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia, both engaged in a brutal crackdown of pro-Democracy protesters.  Since a disputed election June 13, 2009, Ahmadinejad has engaged in martial law, systematically suppressing protests over what international observers see as a fraudulent election.  Hillary’s warnings were targeting to members of the U.N. Security Council.

            Israel has been warning the international community that Iran has followed a fast-track to a nuclear bomb.  Iran’s Supreme Religious Leader Ali Khamenei shows little patience for any dissent, rounding up protesters and prosecuting them to the fullest extent of the Iranian law.  Netanyahu told Medvedev that if the Security cannot agree on a news sanctions regime, then Israel might take unilateral action.  While that seems reasonable, Moscow opposes any attempt by Israel to influence the U.N.’s decision on sanctions.  “I worry a great deal about the unintended consequences of a strike,” said Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Micahel Mullen, concerned that time is running out on Israeli patience.  Mullen believe that an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities could trigger a larger war, including missile strikes against Israel by Tehran-supported Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.

            Amadinejad has won kudos from Arabs all over the world for his support of a Palestinian uprising, known as the “Intifada.”  He’s been spewing anti-Semetic rhetoric and Holocaust denial, winning over terrorists like Osama bin Laden, whose frequent references to an independent Palestinian state makes him a hero on the Arab street.  Netanyahu sees a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat to Israel, despite a well-recognized deterrent regime.  Ahmadinejad likes to provoke Israel, prompting warnings from Mullen and other U.S. officials.  He believes an Israeli strike would complicate U.S. defensive posture in the Middle East and Persian Gulf.  U.S. authorities believe a nuclear-armed Iran would throw off the strategic balance, giving Ahmadinejad more leverage in the Middle East.  Seeking support in the Security Council, Israel must pick its battles wisely, deferring to Russia.

            Obama’s started his foreign policy out on the right foot canceling former President George W. Bush’s contracts with Boeing Space Systems to build a missile defense shield in Poland and Czech Republic.  Despite Russian reservations about more Iranian sanctions, canceling missile defense created better U.S.-Russian rapport on the Security Council.  Selling more arums to Taiwan and scheduling a Feb. 18 meeting with Dalai Lama has hurt Barack’s chances of prevailing on the Security Council.  With all of Russia’s business dealing with Tehran, it wasn’t easy to win concession on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.  Building more consensus for sanctions on the Security Council was primary strategy to keep Israel from launching more terrorist attacks.  Netanyahu is like no other recent Israeli leaders, not afraid if needed to go it alone to protect Israel’s national security.

            Israel’s national security is better served when Netanyahu refrains from public lobbying for tougher sanctions against Iran.  Most industrialized powers have sympathies to the Palestinian cause, after years of hard lobbying for more Palestinian rights.  Rightly or wrongly, Palestinians have more sympathy on the world stage than Israel.  “There is no single target which if destroyed would substantially set back the program,” said former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Arens, cautioning whether or not it’s feasible to attack Tehran’s enrichment facilities.  Arens recalls the 1991 Gulf War where the U.S. discouraged Israel from going to war.  Netanyahu needs to zip it and let Hillary perform her magic to get growing numbers on board with more severe sanctions.  More heated rhetoric only sets Tehran back on its heels, making an eventual settlement more complicated and less doable.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.