by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Feb. 12, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

uper Tuesday wound up not so super for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), whose campaign was supposed to put the junior senator from Illinois away. After all, Hillary was ready to lead on “day-one” and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) wasn't prepared for to the monumental job awaiting the Oval Office. Hillary forgot she had an equally titanic task of convincing voters to follow her lead, an essential part of a presidential campaign. When her husband, former President Bill Clinton, compared Barack to Rev. Jesse Jackson before the South Carolina primary, the wheels fell off her campaign. Since then she's been apologizing, excusing and otherwise explaining racist overtones, real or imagined, hinted by Bill, now muzzled on the sidelines. Hillary's sale has fallen on deaf ears, giving Obama new momentum heading into the Potomac primaries.

      When Hillary lent her campaign $5 million Feb. 6 and reassigned signed her campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle Feb. 10, it signaled chaos in Hillaryland. Those two events hurt her in last week's primaries in Nebraska, Washington State, Louisiana and Maine. Winning Maine, a virtually all-white state, reinforced the idea that Barack appealed to a wide swath of voters. Obama's weekend sweep gave him a head of steam facing today's contests in Maryland, District of Columbia and Virginia. Hillary tried to explain away the campaign shuffling but couldn't account for her poor showing last weekend. She's hoping to get bailed out March 4 when Ohio and Texas get to vote. Like former GOP front-runner New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's spectacular collapse, Hillary hasn't yet accepted defeat. She can't believe that voters finally see an alternative to business as usual.

      Obama's message about Hillary's old-school politics has finally sunk-in to Democratic voters. She reminded voters, over and over, that she's battle-tested with a long history of combat with the GOP. She helped Barack close his argument that a Hillary presidency would be a continuation of bitter partisanship and gridlock. She has wonderful ideas about national health care and global warming but won't be able to get them through a divided Congress. Hillary has said Barack lacks the stomach to fend off GOP attacks, coming sooner rather than later. Only she is capable of battling the “vast right wing conspiracy,” as she affectionately called the GOP attack machine in 1998. Now that Hillary's campaign is coming apart, she wants Obama to commit to more debates. Barack hasn't taken the bait and seems content to hold one more debate before the March primaries.

      Before Hillary jumped into the race Jan. 21, 2007, polls showed she had the highest disapproval ratings of any presidential candidate. After over one year of high profile media exposure and 18 televised debates, she still has a 47% negative rating. While she still has her following, there's a striking contrast with the effervescent Obama whose appeal seems to grow with every stump speech. Even Hillary suddenly finds her rival appealing. “I have the highest regard for him. He was my friend before this started, and he will be my friend going into the future,” said Clinton, responding to questions whether she'd consider sharing the ticket in November. While that might serve her well if she wins the nomination, it won't serve Obama who must pick someone with gravitas and strong national appeal. Picking Hillary would turn off independents and crossovers, hurting Barack in November.

      Heavy campaigning created too much exposure, turning voters off to Hillary's uptight personality. Whether Bill admits it or not, Hillary has difficulty connecting to the same voters that made him such a successful politician, now driving voters to Obama. With Barack, voters get a warm, enthusiastic voice for change, offering hope out of Washington's rancor and stagnation. Voters seek someone with whom to relate, someone that can connect to their experience. While Hillary talks about universal health care, helping the poor and improving public schools, she doesn't convey the kind of appeal to make it happen. Her campaign's financial woes directly relate to her inability to attract new voters. Her major donors and campaign contributors are beginning to look to Obama as the Democratic nominee. By the time Ohio and Texas votes, her support will grow more tenuous.

      Hillary's campaign unraveled because she couldn't inspire enough voters to follow her lead. Talking about complex campaign issues doesn't undo her personal negatives that leave voters looking elsewhere. With little policy differences between her and Barack, the campaign boiled down to a personality contest greatly favoring Obama. If the Potomac primaries go as expected, Barack will have unstoppable momentum heading into Ohio and Texas. While he's not there yet, he's well on his way to capturing the nomination. “Hillary Clinton has a coalition of voters well-suited to winning the general election,” said Hillary's chief strategist Mark Penn, failing to account for how his candidate lost eight consecutive contests. Hillary's campaign hasn't yet caught up with reality: Voters have turned to Barack as the best option to exit Iraq and turn a new political page.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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