by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Feb. 5, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

ike so many other unexpected events, President George W. Bush's new $3.1 trillion budget draws the battle lines for the 2008 presidential race, proposing a whopping 8.1% Pentagon increase. “We're spending $9 billion to $10 billion every month,” noted Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) at the contentious Jan. 23 debate in Myrtle Beach, S.C. “That's money that could be going right here in South Carolina to lay broadband lines in rural communities, to put kids back to school,” highlighting the sacrifices made for the Iraq War. Obama's $9-10 billion estimate doesn't come close to including Bush's supplemental Pentagon spending requests, placing the real costs well over $12 billion a month. Nothing could be more black-or-white than Bush's proposed $518.3 billion Pentagon budget, not including the current $102 billion request and another $70 billion for the war on terror.

      Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the GOP front-runner, expects the Iraq War to continue go “as long as it takes,” to declare victory, allowing Iraq's new regime to sustain and defend itself. Bush's new budget calls for across-the-board cuts in entitlement programs, including Medicare and Medicaid, government-sponsored health care programs to help the elderly, disabled and the poor. McCain views Bush's troop surge as succeeding because of the drop in U.S. casualties beginning in Dec. 2007. Yet 39 American soldiers lost their lives in January 2008, nearly double Dec.'s figures. No success or failure in the war can be measured solely on death rates. Bush's new budget preserves his 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, offers $150 billion in stimulus and nearly doubles the deficit to $400 billion. With the Iraq price tag approaching $1 trillion, it's going to be tough for McCain to sell Bush's Iraq policy.

      While there's nothing wrong in cutting waste, fraud and mismanagement, Bush's proposed $208 billion cuts over five years reduce compensation to physicians, nursing homes and home health services. It's beyond ironic that the costs associated with Bush's Medicare Part D, the prescription drug bill, drive today's panic and draconic cuts. Sen. Max Bacus (D-Mont.), chair of the Senate Budget Committee, called Bush's budget “dead on arrival with me and most of the Congress.” White House Budget Director Jim Nussle admitted the budget deficit would rise from $167 billion in fiscal 2007 to $400 billion in 2008-2009, assuming certain optimistic growth forecasts. If the economy continues to slow, those assumptions go out the window, ballooning deficits to record levels. Nussle predicts that, with Bush's pro-growth policies, the budget would balance by 2112.

      Bush's Iraq War has broken the budget forcing cuts in virtually all other non-defense-related areas. It sets up a colossal confrontation between McCain and any Democratic challenger proposing to end the war. Nussle's rosy forecast of 2.7% growth for fiscal 2007 is strikingly at odds with the Congressional Budget Office and Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other Fed governors who see the economy stalling or, worst yet, turning negative. Every one percent drop in Gross Domestic Product causes $37.1 billion more deficit next year and $251 billion over the next five. If Bush continues with his $150 billion stimulus and growth slows, the deficit could hit $1 trillion in two years. McCain's plan to follow Bush's Iraq policy guarantees record deficits and economic upheaval. When Bush leaves office next year, he'll be more focused on his presidential library.

      Bush's economy and budget is McCain's worst nightmare heading into the general election. He's left himself no wiggle room to extricate the country from Iraq. Most independent military analysts expect Bush's recent $70 billion request to mushroom. “If things fall apart in Iraq and continue to deteriorate in Afghanistan, as is very likely, that $70 billion should be about triple,” said Winslow T. Wheeler, a Pentagon critic with the nonpartisan Center for Defense Information. Calling for $178 billion cuts in Medicare over five years and $17 billion in Medicaid over 10 years don't begin to compensate for costs of the Iraq War. Even Bush's diehard supporters stand to lose real benefits under his budget that savages social programs to fund a politically unpopular war. If McCain wins the nomination, he'll face almost certain liquidation running on Bush's program.

      Bush's budget gives Democratic candidates the perfect argument for ending the Iraq War: The country can't afford it. Whatever waste, fraud and mismanagement exist in entitlement programs, they pale in comparison to the extravagance spent on the Pentagon. With oil companies reaping obscene profits and passing inflated prices onto the Pentagon, there's been no attempt to control flagrant price-gouging. It's going to be a tough sell using the same old arguments to sell Bush's Iraq policy. McCain may wish to give the Pentagon a blank check but Bush's budget reminds voters that there's more at stake than pretending to stop the next terrorist attack on American soil. Slashing Medicare, Medicaid and other entitlements to fund the Iraq's reconstruction runs counter to voters' instincts. Bush's budget is living proof of the price paid by taxpayers for a failed policy.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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