by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright January 19, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

iving a good barometer of things to come, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) powered past her pesky rival Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.), coasting to a 51% to 45% victory in Nevada. It's especially impressive considering Obama's endorsement by Nevada's Culinary Workers Union. What presages the future is Hillary's strong showing with the Democratic base, a key part of winning the big prize on Super Tuesday Feb. 5, when 1,644 are up for grabs. Hillary took the lion's share of Hispanic voters, signaling problems for Obama going forward, especially in the Mountain states and West. Clinton continues to run strong with core Democratic voters, including working class whites and Hispanics. Without capturing some of Clinton's Latino vote, Obama has a tough row to hoe going forward. Obama can't win by promoting himself as the “change” candidate and only consolidating the black vote.

      Since winning Iowa Jan. 3, Obama hasn't won again, losing New Hampshire and now Nevada, returning Hillary to front-runner. Obama must now pull out South Carolina Jan. 26, with over 50% black voters. Should Barack lose in South Carolina, it would almost certainly give Hillary an unstoppable edge into Super Tuesday. Winning Nevada, frees Hillary to visit Missouri, while Barack must concentrate on South Carolina. “Now we're back here in the Midwest, where I'm from. I'm so happy to see you all,” Hillary said at a campaign stop in a St. Louis suburb. Losing South Carolina would have little impact on Hillary's campaign, where her East and West Coast and Midwest strategy poses more problems for Obama. She looks well positioned on Feb. 5 to win California and her adopted home state of New York. Obama hasn't figured out how tap into Hillary's base.

      When the economy replaced Iraq as the election year's most pressing issue, it took the steam out of Obama's campaign. Without a track record on the economy, nervous voters defer to Hillary, a recognized part of her husband's late 90's economic boom. Low-income voters, especially Latinos, look to the past to revive a stalled economy. President George W. Bush seeks a $150 billion stimulus package, offering tax rebates and cuts to stave off recession. When it comes to the economy, there's no substitute for experience. Obama appeals to voters, especially independents and crossover Republicans, fed up with Iraq and looking to get out. He offers hope about Iraq but hasn't convinced voters he knows how to fix the economy. Neither Hillary nor Barack have face squarely Iraq's devastating effect on capital markets and the struggling U.S economy.

      Instead of focusing on South Carolina, Obama needs to pitch his campaign in delegate-rich states in the West and East Coast and Midwest. While he looks primed to win Illinois, he's struggling in many other states. “I think she's doing very well,” said Don Fowler, former head to the Democratic National Committee and resident of South Carolina. “I'm confident with the kind of campaign we're running next week we're going to win,” said Fowler, convinced that Barack's support is beginning to slip. After last week's brouhaha about Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., where she gave credit for the 1964 Voting Rights Act to former President Lyndon Baines Johnson, Hillary plans to redeem herself commemorating MLK day at a church in South Carolina. She hopes to pull away support from Barack, convincing voters that she's back on track as the Party's inevitable nominee.

      Losing Nevada was a huge blow to the Obama campaign, signaling more problems with Hispanic voters across the country. If Barack can't sway Latino voters in the West or East coast, Hillary's going to sweep the delegate-rich states on Feb. 5. Winning South Carolina with its high percentage of black voters won't automatically translate into momentum heading into Super Tuesday. Barack needed Nevada, with it largely Hispanic Culinary Workers Union, to boost his electability in other states. Hillary showed she holds more sway with the Democratic base, while Obama appeals more to independents and crossovers, no longer a big factor in the remaining races. While Barack currently pulls black votes away from Hillary, once it's clear she's the inevitable nominee, she can expect a return of black votes. As of now, she's getting a smaller percentage of black votes.

      Nevada dealt Obama a serious blow, proving that Hillary holds more sway with Hispanic voters. With Latinos a dominant force in many Super Tuesday states—especially California—Barack doesn't have much time to make the sale. Poor economic times hurt Republicans but also hurt Obama because of his lack of experience on economic matters. Bush's plan to add to the deficit and issue $150 billion in tax rebates, credits and cuts, raises more serious questions about the economy going forward. With Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke ready to slash interest rates at the end of the month, the economy will take front and center on the campaign trail. More attention on the economy will help Hillary and hurt Barack, steering voters toward a known quantity like the Clintons to manage the economy. Talking about unity and change can only go so far.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

©1999-2005 Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.
(310) 204-8300
All Rights Reserved.