NBC's Costly Mistake

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Jan..14, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                    

              When Jack Paar quit NBC’s “Tonight Show” in Oct. 1962, a 37-year-old comic named Johnny Carson took over, building the show into America’s favorite late-night TV pastime.  Carson enjoyed a 30-year run, handing the baton to Jay Leno in 1992.  NBC executives had muted expectations for Leno, a 32-year-old stand-up comic, filling Carson’s shoes.  Much to NBC’s surprise, Leno grew on Carson’s audience, working hard to retain and expand Johnny’s loyal following.  Twelve years into Leno’s gig, NBC’s 26-year-old Harvard whiz-kid, president of its TV Group, Jeff Zucker, made a deal in 2004 with fellow Harvard alum Conan O’Brien, host of NBC’s “Late Night” show to retire Leno and take over the “Tonight Show” in 2009.  Rolling the dice, Zucker had high expectations when he retired Leno May 29, 2009 and handed the “Tonight Show” to O’Brien.

            Back in 2004, Zucker crunched the demographic numbers and concluded that Conan attracted a new generation of late-night viewers, making it logical to hand over the show in five years.  Zucker miscalculated Leno’s late-night audience, refusing to jump on the Conan bandwagon and ending NBC’s supremacy in late-night TV.  Zucker’s calculation was based on giving Conan enough time to develop his own audience, a type of  “demographic transition.”  Over the past seven months, NBC watched the “Tonight Show” shrink in the Nielsen overnight ratings, cutting deeply into NBC’s advertising revenues.  While Zucker wanted to give Conan more time, the network required profits, something lagging behind CBS’s “Late Night” with David Letterman.  Despite Letterman’s PR problems, he continued beat Conan’s overnight ratings, forcing Zucker to change his mind.

            No one knows whether giving Conan more time would change the current trend of Letterman dominating late-night TV.  Zucker knew that sticking Leno in primetime was a huge risk, forcing the late-night format into the 10:00 p.m. slot, typically saved for nighttime dramas.  TV unions were especially irked when Zucker insisted that Leno, his safety net, be stuck in primetime.  Tying up Leno in primetime turned prescient for Zucker, since it prevented Jay from jumping ship.  Zucker played both sides against the middle and got burned.  Conan’s decision in 2004 to stick around five years and inherit the “Tonight Show” was based on Zucker’s belief that his young star represented the future.  Zucker’s disappointment with Conan’s ratings prompted his brainstorm to return Leno to the 11:35 p.m. time slot, penciling in Conan 12:05 a.m., causing the latest Hollywood hubbub.

            Zucker, a brilliant programming executive with NBC, responsible for “Friends,” “Law and Order,” Donald Trump’s “The Apprentice,” “Fear Factor,” etc., including NBC’s Latino programming divisions, let his ego get the better of him.  When Conan spurned Zucker’s plan to have Conan follow Leno at 12:05 a.m, the 44-year-old President and CEO of NBC Universal threatened to put Conan on “ice” for years.  “I’ll keep you off the air for 3 1/2 years,” said Zucker, displaying kind of chutzpah not seen since Disney CEO Michael Eisner lashed out in 1998 at Jeffrey Katzenberg, refusing his promotion, calling him a “little midget” and eventually costing Disney shareholders in 1999 a $250 million judgment.  In a letter to his fans, Conan said Zucker’s plan would “seriously destroy” the “Tonight Show,” “the greatest franchise in the history of broadcasting.”     

            Zucker’s mistake was not trying to anticipate changing demographics and signing Conan to replace Leno on the “Tonight Show,” it was acting imperiously, airing his frustrations in public and embarrassing his network.  No one doubts Zucker’s programming talent or forward-thinking for NBC.  Zucker made an honest mistake about future audience changes.  He didn’t realize that Conan’s acerbic wit and aloofness was less appealing to the late-night audience than a more warm-and-fuzzy Leno.  “I worked long and hard to get the opportunity, passed up far more lucrative offers, and since 2004 I have spent literally hundreds of hours thinking of ways to extend the franchise long into the future,” said Conan, hinting at a potentially mammoth-sized breach-of-contract suit.  Zucker’s public spanking of Conan makes it more difficult for NBC to reach an amicable settlement.

             Zucker needs urgent training with NBC’s parent company GE’s former President and CEO Jack Welch.  When Welch left GE in 2001, he was a tough act to follow for Jeffrey R. Immelt, who tried his best to fill Welch’s shoes of treating all employees with the utmost respect and dignity.  Zucker’s public tongue-lashing of O’Brien does nothing to correct his mistake, or, for that matter, make the fix more within reach.  Zucker’s lack of finesse complicated the mess and exposed NBC to more liability.  It wasn’t Conan’s fault that Zucker promised him the “Tonight Show” in 2004.  Whether Zucker believed his experiment failed or not, he shouldn’t punish Conan for his own mistake.  Nor should Zucker show so little sensitivity to Leno when he arbitrarily made him into a has-been in 2004 promising Conan the “Tonight Show.”  Zucker needs to man-up, mend fences or consider another job.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

©1999-2012 Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.
(310) 204-8300
All Rights Reserved.