ÿþ<html> <head> <meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html;charset=iso-8859-1"> <title>OnlineColumnist®.com: Duke's Damage Control</title> <meta name="generator" content="Adobe GoLive 4"> <style type="text/css"> .style1 { font-size: x-large; font-weight: bold; } </style> </head> <body bgcolor="white" vlink="black"> <center> <table cool width="624" height="2719" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" gridx="16" showgridx gridy="16" showgridy> <tr height="79"> <td width="116" height="118" rowspan="2" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0"> <a href="081609.html"><img height="110" width="62" src="images/discobolos.logo.transp.gif" border="0"></a></td> <td width="24" height="118" rowspan="2"></td> <td width="465" height="79" colspan="2" valign="top" align="left" xpos="140"><img height="75" width="450" src="images/banner.GIF"></td> <td width="18" height="118" rowspan="2"></td> <td width="1" height="79"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="79"></td> </tr> <tr height="39"> <td width="182" height="39"></td> <td width="283" height="39" valign="top" align="left" xpos="322"><a href="aboutdiscobolos.html"><img height="14" width="267" src="images/divisionofNEW.GIF" border="0"></a></td> <td width="1" height="39"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="39"></td> </tr> <tr height="26"> <td width="624" height="26" colspan="6" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0"> <table border="0" width="100%" bgcolor="black" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td> <table border="0" width="100%" bgcolor="#99ffcc" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="4"> <tr> <td align="center"> <div align="left"> <a href="index.html"><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong> HOME</strong></font></a><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong> &#8226; <a href="articlesindex.html">ARTICLES</a> &#8226; <a href="books.html">BOOKS</a> &#8226; <a href="teflon.html"> THE </a><a href="teflon.html">TEFLON</a><a href="teflon.html"> REPORT</a> &#8226; <a href="mailto:letters@onlinecolumnist.com"> REACTIONS</a> &#8226; <a href="aboutdiscobolos.html">ABOUT DISCOBOLOS</a></strong></font></div> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr height="1"> <td width="116" height="2574" rowspan="2" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0"><img height="172" width="111" src="images/johninframe3.jpg"></td> <td width="489" height="1" colspan="3"></td> <td width="18" height="2574" rowspan="2"></td> <td width="1" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="1"></td> </tr> <tr height="2573"> <td width="489" height="2573" colspan="3" align="left" xpos="116" content valign="top" csheight="2573"> <font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="5"><b> <br /> <br /> Iran&#39;s Concession</b></font><p><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular"><b> by John M. Curtis<br> (310) 204-8700</b><br> </font></p> <p><font size="2" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular"><i>Copyright Oct. 21, 2009<br> All Rights Reserved.</i></font></p> <p><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<span class="style1">&nbsp;</span></span><span class="style1">F</span>aced with mounting pressure by the U.S., Great Britain, France, Germany and, to a lesser extent, China and Russia, Iran reluctantly agreed to Nobel Prize winner Mohamad ElBaraadei s plan to allow Russia to reprocess Iran s enriched uranium.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Only weeks before ElBaradei weighed in, the U.N. Security Council was faced with growing prospects of more draconic sanctions, and possible military options, to stop Tehran s nuclear enrichment program.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Since booting out ElBaradei s nuclear inspectors in 2004, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gave the former Bush administration fits about Iran s nuclear program.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>With the help of Pakistan s A.Q. Khan the father of Pakistan s A-bomb and atomic technology from France and Russia, Iran was able to build up its enrichment program to an estimated 9,000 centrifuges, yielding roughly 2,600 pounds of U-238.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Agreeing in principle today in Vienna to allow Russia to reprocess low-grade-uranium, Iran avoided more serious consequence for refusing to suspend its uranium enrichment program.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> Since coming to office in 2005, Ahmadinejad defended Iran s rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to complete the nuclear fuel cycle for peaceful purposes, specifically generating electricity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Ahamadinejad has denied Western claims that Iran seeks to build its first A-bomb.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Iran has said for some time that it has an inalienable right to enrich uranium.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Western arms experts conjecture that Iran is between 1-3 years from a crude nuclear bomb. They also believe Iran has enough enriched uranium for at least one warhead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Israeli officials, especially conservative Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have warned Iran about possible military consequences of continuing to enrich uranium.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Today s developments in Vienna on the diplomatic front buy Iran more time and stymie Western threats for more sanctions and possible military options. Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran s chief negotiator to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, said ElBaradei s plan was  on the right track&quot; but uncertain of Tehran s reaction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> We have to thoroughly study this text and also [need] further elaboration in capitals, said Soltanieh, offering no promises.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Iran s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, titular head of Iran s Revolutionary Gurards, and Ahmadinejad have opposed all prior demands by the U.S. and U.N. to suspend or in any way modify its uranium enrichment program.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Iran s leaders believe it s well-within their rights and nuclear capability to continue enriching uranium to its logical conclusion, including any or all commercial and military applications<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Israel s reaction came swiftly to ElBaradei s announcement of a possible breakthrough.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>When making concessions and saving face, it doesn t help things for Iran s adversaries to make public remarks or rub it in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </span> This proves just how much international pressure is significant, Israeli Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai told Israeli Public Radio.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>If Khamenei or Ahmadinejad perceive any humiliation, they ll reject the deal and prolong the process.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>U.S. authorities reacted positively to ElBaradei s developments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> It was acceptable to our team there, but wee want to give it . . . a chance to be seen by a broader range of people in the interagency here.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>But I expect we ll be able to approve it, signaling a more conciliatory stand than the Bush administration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>ElBaradei got Soltanieh to agree to ship 75% of Iran s enriched uranium to Russia for reprocessing.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Winning the Nobel Peace Prize Oct. 9, President Barack Obama, who originally gave Tehran until the end of the year to stop enriching uranium, looks content to let fellow Nobel laureate ElBaradei do the heavy lifting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Both Soltanieh and Iran s vice president and head of the national nuclear agency Ali Salehi trust ElBaradei far more than members of the U.N. Security Council.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Whether of not Tehran bites at ElBaradei s proposal is anyone s guess.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Judging by past behavior and public remarks, it s unlikely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> They lose their leverage in terms of being able to create a nuclear weapon, said a senior unnamed diplomat closely tied to the Geneva talks  doubted whether Tehran was ready to give up enriching uranium.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>All past indications point toward Tehran rejecting ElBaradei s proposal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>More public remarks from Israel or pressure from the U.S. won t sit well with Iran s mullahs.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>High hopes and unrealistic expectations plague the Vienna talks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>While Soltanieh seems aligned with Western powers, his counterpoints in Tehran aren t on the same page.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Joining the chorus of international pressure, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton urged Tehran to act promptly, insisting dialogue  cannot be open-ended, potentially weighing on Iran s leaders.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> We are not prepared to talk for the sake of talking, Hillary told the U.S. Institute for Peace in Washington.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Given the delicate nature of today s discussions, letting ElBaradei to the talking would yield more fruit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> More idle threats antagonizes the Islamic Republic, reducing chances that Khamenei and Ahmadinejad would go along.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Whatever the outcome of ElBaradei s proposal, Tehran could replace the enriched uranium in one year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> Toning down the rhetoric and letting ElBaradei spread some good will can only help..</p> <p><b>John M. Curtis</b> writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.&nbsp; He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of <a href="books.html">Dodging The Bullet </a>and <a href="books.html">Operation Charisma.</a></p> </td> <td width="1" height="2573"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="2573"></td> </tr> <tr height="1" cntrlrow> <td width="116" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="116" height="1"></td> <td width="24" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="24" height="1"></td> <td width="182" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="182" height="1"></td> <td width="283" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="283" height="1"></td> <td width="18" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="18" height="1"></td> <td width="1" height="1"></td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2" width="597"> <tr> <td><font size="1" face="Arial,Geneva,Helvetica"> <hr noshade size="1"> </font><a href="index.html"><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong> Homene.net" target="_blank">img height="30" width="138" src="images/cmelogoANIM.gif" border="0" align="absmiddle"></a></font></p> </div> <p><font size="2" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular">&copy;1999-2002 <a href="aboutdiscobolos.html">Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.</a><br> (310) 204-8300<br> All Rights Reserved. </font></td> </tr> </table> </center> </body> </html>