ÿþ<html> <head> <meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html;charset=iso-8859-1"> <title>OnlineColumnist&reg;.com: Duke's Damage Control</title> <meta name="generator" content="Adobe GoLive 4"> <style type="text/css"> .style2 { width: 240px; } h2 {margin-bottom:.0001pt; text-align:center; page-break-after:avoid; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:Arial; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; } h1 {margin-bottom:.0001pt; page-break-after:avoid; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; font-weight:normal; text-decoration:underline; text-underline:single; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; } .style3 { text-decoration: underline; } .style5 { font-size: x-large; font-weight: bold; } </style> </head> <body bgcolor="white" vlink="black"> <center> <table cool width="624" height="2719" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" gridx="16" showgridx gridy="16" showgridy> <tr height="79"> <td height="118" rowspan="2" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0" class="style2"><a href="aboutdiscobolos.html"><img height="110" width="62" src="images/discobolos.logo.transp.gif" border="0"></a></td> <td width="24" height="118" rowspan="2"></td> <td height="79" colspan="2" valign="top" align="left" xpos="140"><img height="75" width="450" src="images/banner.GIF"></td> <td width="18" height="118" rowspan="2"></td> <td width="1" height="79"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="79"></td> </tr> <tr height="39"> <td width="182" height="39"></td> <td height="39" valign="top" align="left" xpos="322"><a href="aboutdiscobolos.html"><img height="14" width="267" src="images/divisionofNEW.GIF" border="0"></a></td> <td width="1" height="39"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="39"></td> </tr> <tr height="26"> <td width="624" height="26" colspan="6" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0"> <table border="0" width="100%" bgcolor="black" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td> <table border="0" width="100%" bgcolor="#99ffcc" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="4"> <tr> <td align="center"> <div align="left"> <a href="index.html"><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong>HOME</strong></font></a><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong> &#149; <a href="articlesindex.html">ARTICLES</a> &#149; <a href="books.html">BOOKS</a> &#149; <a href="teflon.html">THE </a><a href="teflon.html">TEFLON</a><a href="teflon.html"> REPORT</a> &#149; <a href="mailto:letters@onlinecolumnist.com">REACTIONS</a> &#149; <a href="aboutdiscobolos.html">ABOUT DISCOBOLOS</a></strong></font></div> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr height="1"> <td height="2574" rowspan="2" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0" class="style2"><img height="172" width="111" src="images/johninframe3.jpg"></td> <td height="1" colspan="3"></td> <td width="18" height="2574" rowspan="2"></td> <td width="1" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="1"></td> </tr> <tr height="2573"> <td height="2573" colspan="3" align="left" xpos="116" content valign="top" csheight="2573"> <font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="5"><b> <br /> Iran&#39;s Crackdown</b></font> <p><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular"><b>by John M. Curtis<br> (310) 204-8700</b><br> </font></p> <p><font size="2" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular"><i>Copyright June 17, 2009<br> All Rights Reserved.</i></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="style5">W</span>alking a tightrope, President Barack Obama reluctantly heeded calls from conservatives to challenge Iran s disputed June 12 election, where incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad apparently won reelection.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Opposition candidate Mir-Hossain Mousavi and thousands of supporters took to Tehran s streets to protest what they saw as a fixed election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Shortly after polls closed around the country, Ahmadinejad and Iran s Interior Ministry declared victory, trouncing reform-minded candidate Mousavi 66.6% to 33.75%, collecting, counting, analyzing and tabulating results in record time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Without calling the election fraud, Obama expressed concern for violence and loss of life of protestors confronted by militias connected with Iran s ruling mullahs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Mass demonstrations in Tehran show that growing numbers of voters find life under Islamic extremists intolerable.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Before the Shah s fall in 1979, Iran was a pro-Western, pluralistic society, valuing modernization and multiculturalism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini took over, a fiercely oppressive group of mullahs, led by the Guardian Council and Assembly of Experts, control every aspect of Iranian life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Controlled by the oppressive Republican Guard, an offshoot of the Shah s secret police, Western influence has been all but purged from Iranian life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Women have been especially persecuted, banned from wearing makeup and fashionable clothing and forced to wear traditional Islamic attire called the hijab, a long scarf that covers the hair and face.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Roving bands of plainclothes Republican Guard beat and arrest violators for wardrobe infractions or watching or listening to Western TV/movies, music or shows.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Mass protests against the June 12 election rebelled against strict Islamic law.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Throwing a bone to protestors, Iran s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reluctantly agreed to a limited vote recount, not likely to reverse the election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Not yet arrested, Mousavi called for another mass rally, defying Iran s Guardian Council, calling for a sharp end to mass protests.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Iranian authorities responded to protests by banning all foreign journalists and cutting off nationwide Intenet access.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> Iranian authorities accused Washington of  intolerable interference in Iran s internal affairs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Treading on thin ice, Obama was very careful not to accuse Ahmadinejad of vote fraud.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Merely acknowledging the rights of protestors antagonized Iran s ruling mullahs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Mousavi s protests have put pressure on Iran s Supreme Leader and Guardian Council, now watched carefully by disgruntled voters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Cracking down too fiercely could lend credence to a fraudulent election.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Mousavi s protests and mass demonstration are closely watched by Iran s former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who heads the powerful Assembly of Experts, a 12-member clerical body that picks Iran s supreme leader.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Rafsanjani, a vocal critic of Ahmadinejad, could, while not likely, oust Khamenei for violating Islamic law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> It is a split itself over the election and the broader grand strategy of the country, said Robert Niblett, director of the Royal Institute for International Affairs in London.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Niblett was especially concerned with the government s block on Web sites, including BBC Farsi, Facebook, Twitter and several other pro-Mousavi sites.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> I don t believe the protestors want to overthrow the system at this time although their ire at Khamenei may increase, said Niblett, surprised by the extent of the protests.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Khamenei s excessive crackdown could lead to revolution.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Iran wants to divert attention away from election fraud to U.S. meddling in Iranian affairs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Ahmadinejad has shown great skill at propaganda and the host of diversionary tactics that go hand-in-hand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Blaming the U.S. legitimizes the government s current crackdown, where protestors are fingered as subversives trying to topple the hard-line government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Plainclothes Republicans Guard go about their businesses quietly arresting and incarcerating pro-Democracy dissidents.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Ahmadinejad and Khamenei may have to arrest the Iranian national soccer team for showing support to Mousavi.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>When Khomenei seized control in 1979, many open-minded people left Iran before all dissent was squelched.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Khomenei s regime, like China s Mao Zedong, aimed at totalitarian control.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>What Mao did with communism, Khomenei did with Islamic extremism:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Both took no prisoners.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Iran s ruling mullahs face an unprecedented challenge for stealing an election from reform-minded Mir-Hossain Mousavi.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Cracking down on dissent could boomerang forcing the hand of Rafsanjani whose powerful leadership of the Assembly of Experts could vote to replace Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with a new leader.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>While not likely, Khamenei s crackdown could backfire demonstrating to fair-minded Iranians the blinding power grab of Islamic extremists.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> Arresting Tehran-based analyst Saeed Leilaz, frequently quoted by Western media, shows the extent of the crackdown currently underway.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Allowing Khamenei s loyal Guardian Counsel to rubber stamp Ahmadinejad s Interior Ministry election results will no doubt cause more friction with protesters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Mousavi knows that if he keeps protesting, an extreme crackdown could upend the Khamenei regime.</p> <p class="style3"> About the Author</p> <p><b>John M. Curtis</b> writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor OnlineColumnist.com and author of <a href="books.html">Dodging The Bullet</a> and <a href="books.html">Operation Charisma</a>.<br> </p> <p></p> </td> <td width="1" height="2573"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="2573"></td> </tr> <tr height="1" cntrlrow> <td height="1" class="style2"><spacer type="block" width="116" height="1"></td> <td width="24" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="24" height="1"></td> <td width="182" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="182" height="1"></td> <td height="1"><spacer type="block" width="283" height="1"></td> <td width="18" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="18" height="1"></td> <td width="1" height="1"></td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2" width="597"> <tr> <td><font size="1" face="Arial,Geneva,Helvetica"> <hr noshade size="1"> </font><a href="index.html"><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong>Home</strong></font></a><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong> || <a href="articlesindex.html">Articles</a> || <a href="books.html">Books</a> || <a href="teflon.html">The Teflon Report</a> || <a href="mailto:letters@onlinecolumnist.com">Reactions</a> || <a href="aboutdiscobolos.html">About Discobolos</a></strong></font> <div align="left"> <p><font size="1" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular">This site designed, developed and hosted by the experts at</font><font size="2" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular"> <a href="http://www.cmeonline.net" target="_blank"><img height="30" width="138" src="images/cmelogoANIM.gif" border="0" align="absmiddle"></a></font></p> </div> <p><font size="2" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular">&copy;1999-2002 <a href="aboutdiscobolos.html">Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.</a><br> (310) 204-8300<br> All Rights Reserved. </font></td> </tr> </table> </center> </body> </html>