ÿþ<html> <head> <meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html;charset=iso-8859-1"> <title>OnlineColumnist&reg;.com: Duke's Damage Control</title> <meta name="generator" content="Adobe GoLive 4"> <style type="text/css"> .style2 { width: 240px; } h2 {margin-bottom:.0001pt; text-align:center; page-break-after:avoid; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:Arial; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; } h1 {margin-bottom:.0001pt; page-break-after:avoid; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; font-weight:normal; text-decoration:underline; text-underline:single; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; } .style3 { text-decoration: underline; } .style4 { font-weight: normal; } .style5 { font-size: x-large; } </style> </head> <body bgcolor="white" vlink="black"> <center> <table cool width="624" height="2719" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" gridx="16" showgridx gridy="16" showgridy> <tr height="79"> <td height="118" rowspan="2" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0" class="style2"><a href="aboutdiscobolos.html"><img height="110" width="62" src="images/discobolos.logo.transp.gif" border="0"></a></td> <td width="24" height="118" rowspan="2"></td> <td height="79" colspan="2" valign="top" align="left" xpos="140"><img height="75" width="450" src="images/banner.GIF"></td> <td width="18" height="118" rowspan="2"></td> <td width="1" height="79"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="79"></td> </tr> <tr height="39"> <td width="182" height="39"></td> <td height="39" valign="top" align="left" xpos="322"><a href="aboutdiscobolos.html"><img height="14" width="267" src="images/divisionofNEW.GIF" border="0"></a></td> <td width="1" height="39"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="39"></td> </tr> <tr height="26"> <td width="624" height="26" colspan="6" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0"> <table border="0" width="100%" bgcolor="black" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td> <table border="0" width="100%" bgcolor="#99ffcc" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="4"> <tr> <td align="center"> <div align="left"> <a href="index.html"><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong>HOME</strong></font></a><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong> &#149; <a href="articlesindex.html">ARTICLES</a> &#149; <a href="books.html">BOOKS</a> &#149; <a href="teflon.html">THE </a><a href="teflon.html">TEFLON</a><a href="teflon.html"> REPORT</a> &#149; <a href="mailto:letters@onlinecolumnist.com">REACTIONS</a> &#149; <a href="aboutdiscobolos.html">ABOUT DISCOBOLOS</a></strong></font></div> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr height="1"> <td height="2574" rowspan="2" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0" class="style2"><img height="172" width="111" src="images/johninframe3.jpg"></td> <td height="1" colspan="3"></td> <td width="18" height="2574" rowspan="2"></td> <td width="1" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="1"></td> </tr> <tr height="2573"> <td height="2573" colspan="3" align="left" xpos="116" content valign="top" csheight="2573"> <font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="5"><b> <br /> Iran&#39;s Election Fix</b></font> <p><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular"><b>by John M. Curtis<br> (310) 204-8700</b><br> </font></p> <p><font size="2" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular"><i>Copyright June 15, 2009<br> All Rights Reserved.</i></font></p> <p style="font-weight: 700"><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<span class="style4"> </span> </span> <span class="style5">C</span><span class="style4">ertifying the Iranian election as  free and fair, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won himself another four-year term as official mouthpiece of Iran s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Reform candidate Mir-Hossain Mousavi hoped for the best but in the end settled for the verdict of Iran s powerful, mullah-dominated cleric minority.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> Ahmandinejad declared victory prompting rioting and protests in Tehran, Iran s most populous city and bastion of reform-minded voters, especially college students.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Among Iran s 70 million citizens, 40 million cast paper ballots around the country.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Within hours, the government announced that Ahmadinejad was reelected handily, beating Mousavi 63.6% to 33.75%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Pre-election polling showed a tight race, with the campaign growing more bitter by the day, witnessing vicious attacks on both sides.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>As election returns were known by the Interior Ministry quickly, it became less plausible because of the time-consuming nature of hand-counted paper ballots.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Calling Ahmadinejad s reelection a  divine blessing, Khamenei transmitted his choice for reelection.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Mousavi s newspaper, Kalemeh Sabz, claimed that over 10 million ballots went missing, calling on the government to nullify the results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Government officials reported he results first from Iran s cities where Mousavi was running ahead in the polls against Ahmadenejad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>High voter turn out was seen a referendum against Ahmadinejad, whose failed economic policies left the country with high inflation and unemployment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Results reported by the Interior Ministry showed Ahmadinejad winning by a 2-1 margin in all cities and rural areas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Since Mousavi was running ahead in the cities, the ministry s election results seem dubious.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <![endif]>Interior Ministry confirmed a record 85% nationwide turnout of Iran s 46.2 million voters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>At least 30% of eligible voters were under 30-years-of-age, another factor suggesting a far closer race.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Hand counting votes in Iran s cities and rural provinces would have taken far longer than reported by the Interior Ministry.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Mousavi had far less appeal to rural and poor voters, a strong support base for Ahmandinejad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> Personally, I think that it is entirely possible that Ahmadinejad received more than 50% of the vote, said Konstantin Kosten, an Iran expert at the Berlin-based German Council on Foreign Relations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Capturing over 50% would have put Ahmadinejad over the top, regardless of fraud allegations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>It s possible that vote tampering increased Ahmadinejad s margin over 30% margin of victory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Relative to Ahmadinejad, Mousavi was still virtually unknown outside of Tehran.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <![endif]>Independent observers are banned from Iran s electoral process, leaving the process largely controlled on faith by the government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>International monitors would have been helpful in establishing the election s credibility.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Keeping out monitors, like Iran s secretive nuclear activities, breed suspicion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>International observers are banned from participating in Iran s electoral activities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Berlin-based Democracy Reporting International, headed by Michael Meyer-Resende, indicated that Iran s election is managed by the government s Interior Ministry and 12-member Guardian Council of clerics closed tied to Iran s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Counting 39.3 paper ballots and reporting findings to the Interior Ministry in 12 hours.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Past election have reportedly taken twice as long to record results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> Speeding up the process raises serious question of voter fraud.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <![endif]>President Obama showed restraint condemning the government crackdown but stopping well-short of accusing Tehran of fixing the election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Less than nine years ago, the U.S. had its own disputed election, where unproven accusations hurtled from both political parties.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Few Iran experts expected the government hand the government over to reformers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>On the other hand, past reformers haven t made too much difference with the Republican Guard and Ayatollah Khameini and Assembly of Experts, the equivalent of the Iranian senate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Ahmadinejad presents seamless leadership with Iran s Supreme Leader, seeing eye-to-eye on virtually every social, political and cultural issue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> I would say it s completely impossible, said Meyer-Resende, about the speed with which the Interior Ministry certified the election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Meyer-Resende doubts whether votes could be counted and certified in 12 hours.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Massive demonstrating protesting the election indicate that large numbers of voters believe the election was fixed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>President Obama should consult with other members of the Security Council and European Union to take a position on the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad s reelection.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Assistant Yale University professor and election expert Susan Hyde, who s supervised elections in the third world for the Carter Center, doubts whether the Interior Ministry could have certified Iran s election so quickly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> If they re still using hand counting, that would be very speedy, unusually speedy, said Hyde, questioning the results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Elections in most authoritarian or totalitarian must be questioned in the context of dictators willing to cede power.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>While by no means unique, Iran s election problems demonstrate the limits of Western democracies to secure honest results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Obama is right to restrain the condemnations now flowing freely from dissidents and pro-Western governments.</p> <p class="style3"> About the Author</p> <p><b>John M. Curtis</b> writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor OnlineColumnist.com and author of <a href="books.html">Dodging The Bullet</a> and <a href="books.html">Operation Charisma</a>.<br> </p> <p></p> </td> <td width="1" height="2573"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="2573"></td> </tr> <tr height="1" cntrlrow> <td height="1" class="style2"><spacer type="block" width="116" height="1"></td> <td width="24" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="24" height="1"></td> <td width="182" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="182" height="1"></td> <td height="1"><spacer type="block" width="283" height="1"></td> <td width="18" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="18" height="1"></td> <td width="1" height="1"></td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2" width="597"> <tr> <td><font size="1" face="Arial,Geneva,Helvetica"> <hr noshade size="1"> </font><a href="index.html"><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong>Home</strong></font></a><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong> || <a href="articlesindex.html">Articles</a> || <a href="books.html">Books</a> || <a href="teflon.html">The Teflon Report</a> || <a href="mailto:letters@onlinecolumnist.com">Reactions</a> || <a href="aboutdiscobolos.html">About Discobolos</a></strong></font> <div align="left"> <p><font size="1" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular">This site designed, developed and hosted by the experts at</font><font size="2" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular"> <a href="http://www.cmeonline.net" target="_blank"><img height="30" width="138" src="images/cmelogoANIM.gif" border="0" align="absmiddle"></a></font></p> </div> <p><font size="2" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular">&copy;1999-2002 <a href="aboutdiscobolos.html">Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.</a><br> (310) 204-8300<br> All Rights Reserved. </font></td> </tr> </table> </center> </body> </html>