ÿþ<html> <head> <meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html;charset=iso-8859-1"> <title>OnlineColumnist&reg;.com: Duke's Damage Control</title> <meta name="generator" content="Adobe GoLive 4"> <style type="text/css"> .style1 { font-size: x-large; font-weight: bold; } </style> </head> <body bgcolor="white" vlink="black"> <center> <table cool width="624" height="2719" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" gridx="16" showgridx gridy="16" showgridy> <tr height="79"> <td width="116" height="118" rowspan="2" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0"><a href="aboutdiscobolos.html"><img height="110" width="62" src="images/discobolos.logo.transp.gif" border="0"></a></td> <td width="24" height="118" rowspan="2"></td> <td width="465" height="79" colspan="2" valign="top" align="left" xpos="140"><img height="75" width="450" src="images/banner.GIF"></td> <td width="18" height="118" rowspan="2"></td> <td width="1" height="79"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="79"></td> </tr> <tr height="39"> <td width="182" height="39"></td> <td width="283" height="39" valign="top" align="left" xpos="322"><a href="aboutdiscobolos.html"><img height="14" width="267" src="images/divisionofNEW.GIF" border="0"></a></td> <td width="1" height="39"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="39"></td> </tr> <tr height="26"> <td width="624" height="26" colspan="6" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0"> <table border="0" width="100%" bgcolor="black" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td> <table border="0" width="100%" bgcolor="#99ffcc" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="4"> <tr> <td align="center"> <div align="left"> <a href="index.html"><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong>HOME</strong></font></a><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong> &#149; <a href="articlesindex.html">ARTICLES</a> &#149; <a href="books.html">BOOKS</a> &#149; <a href="teflon.html">THE </a><a href="teflon.html">TEFLON</a><a href="teflon.html"> REPORT</a> &#149; <a href="mailto:letters@onlinecolumnist.com">REACTIONS</a> &#149; <a href="aboutdiscobolos.html">ABOUT DISCOBOLOS</a></strong></font></div> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr height="1"> <td width="116" height="2574" rowspan="2" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0"><img height="172" width="111" src="images/johninframe3.jpg"></td> <td width="489" height="1" colspan="3"></td> <td width="18" height="2574" rowspan="2"></td> <td width="1" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="1"></td> </tr> <tr height="2573"> <td width="489" height="2573" colspan="3" align="left" xpos="116" content valign="top" csheight="2573"> <font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="5"><b> <br /> Obama&#39;s Afghan Pivot</b></font> <p><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular"><b>by John M. Curtis<br> (310) 204-8700</b><br> </font></p> <p><font size="2" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular"><i>Copyright March 22, 2009<br> All Rights Reserved.</i></font></p> <p><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><span class="style1">S</span>ignaling a shift in U.S. Afghan policy, President Barack Obama hinted that he would not make the same mistake as former President George W. Bush: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</span>Giving the war a blank check.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Following Sept. 11, the Bush administration toppled the Taliban government Nov. 13, 2001, driving its one-eyed leader Mullah Mohammed Omar into hiding.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Accused of supporting Osama bin Laden, the Taliban operates a network of skilled Pashtun fighters known for their successful decade-long battle with the Soviet Union during the of the 1980s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>When the Taliban finally evicted the Soviets Feb. 15, 1989, Omar had a close alliance with Saudi-born Osama Bin Laden, both joining forces to defeat Soviet occupation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>When the U.S. evicted the Taliban in 2001, they joined a strategic alliance with al-Qaida, seeking nothing short of returning Afghanistan to strict Islamic law known a  Sharia. </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Obama campaigned on the promise he would find an exit strategy in Iraq, shifting U.S. forces to the real war on terror.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Obama rejected Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney s belief that Iraq was the central front in the war on terror.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Beginning to scale back forces in Iraq, Barack promised to add more forces to a deteriorating situation in Afghanistan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Starting in June, U.S. troops are expected to rise by 30,000, signaling a shift in U.S. priorities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> What we can t do is think that just a military approach in Afghanistan is going to be able to solve our problems, Barack told CBS broadcast journalist Scott Pelley in an exclusive interview on  60 Minutes. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Barack made a convincing case during the campaign that the U.S. barked up the wrong tree in Iraq.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>He suggested under his leadership that the U.S. would shift emphasis overseas from Iraq to Afghanistan.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Barack expressed reservations about Iraq from the get-go but vaguely supported efforts in Afghanistan to pursue the perpetrators of Sept. 11, namely, Osama bin Laden, believed hiding in the rugged ungoverned tribal region shared with Pakistan. Since the Jan. 2007 Iraq troop-surge, violence has been substantially reduced.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Casualties in Afghanistan, on the other hand, have dramatically jumped, prompting the recent increase in U.S. troops.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> While many believe Iraq was the wrong war, they also don t want to fall victim to black-or-white logic that Afghanistan is the right one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Barack s recent misgivings about Afghanistan reflect military appraisals that the situation as the Soviets found out is bleak and unwinnable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> Neither the U.S. military nor NATO can strike a political solution or create the kind of centralized government needed to control the vast regions of the country.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Escalating U.S. forces won t change the fact that the government of Hamid Karzai controls only a small portion of Kabul and has virtually no control in the rest of the country.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Opium farmers by far the most powerful faction in Afghanistan supported by well-armed militias control much of the country, providing financial and military support to the Taliban.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> So what we re looking for is a comprehensive strategy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>And there s got to be an exit strategy . . . There s got to be a sense that this is not a perpetual drift, said Barack, hinting that, despite the recent troop build-up, that there s no victory in sight.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Given tough economic times, Barack realizes that without substantial military savings it s going to be difficult to fund national health care, global warming, alternative fuels, education and major infrastructure rebuilding.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> Savings must come from somewhere:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> Why not the military?</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Afghan president Hamid Karzai is one bullet away from revolution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>While U.S. and NATO troops have kept a lid on Islamic extremists, the Taliban movement continues to press ahead with its theocratic agenda.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>When they blew up several-stories-tall 5th century Buddhist rock carvings, they exhibited the kind of fanaticism needed for successful mass movements.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>No U.S. or NATO force can dictate the kind of government needed for stability and prosperity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>If rank-and-file Afghans want an Islamic theocracy, there s little the U.S. can do change that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>When Gazans went to the polls Jan. 28, 2005 and voted for Hamas, there was little the U.S. could do to change their minds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Afghanistan, too, could easily choose the Taliban over Karzai s government, signaling that U.S. military involvement could prove fruitless.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Spending more blood-and-treasure in Afghanistan assures nothing.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Obama must recalculate the prevailing wisdom that Afghanistan is the  real war on terror.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>There s no evidence that supporting today s Taliban is a vote for Osama bin Laden.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Sending more troops and pouring billions into Afghanistan won t change opinion polls showing more support for the renegade Taliban than Karazai s  Democratic government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Before Barack jumps in with both feet, he needs tSending more troops and pouring billions into Afghanistan won&#8217;t change opinion polls showing more support for the renegade Taliban than Karzai&#8217;s &#8220;Democratic&#8221; government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Before Barack jumps in with both feet, he needs to take a serious inventory of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Vice President Dick Cheney recently opined that the U.S. was less safe than when he and Bush were at the helm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>He believes exiting Iraq, shuttering Guantanamo, banning &#8220;enhanced interrogation techniques&#8221; and ending warrantless wiretapping makes the U.S. less safe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Cheney has no problem escalating Afghanistan War.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Given today&#8217;s budget constraints, Obama must seriously reconsider escalating the Afghan war.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span> </p> <p><u><b>About the Author height="1" cntrlrow> <td width="116" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="116" height="1"></td> <td width="24" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="24" height="1"></td> <td width="182" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="182" height="1"></td> <td width="283" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="283" height="1"></td> <td width="18" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="18" height="1"></td> <td width="1" height="1"></td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2" width="597"> <tr> <td><font size="1" face="Arial,Geneva,Helvetica"> <hr noshade size="1"> </font><a href="index.html"><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong>Home</strong></font></a><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong> || <a href="articlesindex.html">Articles</a> || <a href="books.html">Books</a> || <a href="teflon.html">The Teflon Report</a> || <a href="mailto:letters@onlinecolumnist.com">Reactions</a> || <a href="aboutdiscobolos.html">About Discobolos</a></strong></font> <div align="left"> <p><font size="1" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular">This site designed, developed and hosted by the experts at</font><font size="2" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular"> <a href="http://www.cmeonline.net" target="_blank"><img height="30" width="138" src="images/cmelogoANIM.gif" border="0" align="absmiddle"></a></font></p> </div> <p><font size="2" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular">&copy;1999-2002 <a href="aboutdiscobolos.html">Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.</a><br> (310) 204-8300<br> All Rights Reserved. </font></td> </tr> </table> </center> </body> </html>