ÿþ<html> <head> <meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html;charset=iso-8859-1"> <title>OnlineColumnist®.com: Putin Punishes Georgia</title> <meta name="generator" content="Adobe GoLive 4"> <style type="text/css"> .style3 { height: 68px; } .MsoNormal {} h1 {margin-bottom:.0001pt; page-break-after:avoid; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; font-weight:normal; text-decoration:underline; text-underline:single; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; } .style4 { font-size: large; font-weight: bold; font-family: Arial; } .style5 { font-size: x-large; font-weight: bold; } </style> </head> <body bgcolor="white" vlink="black"> <center> &nbsp;<table cool width="624" height="2719" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" gridx="16" showgridx gridy="16" showgridy> <tr height="79"> <td width="133" height="118" rowspan="2" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0"> <a href="aboutdiscobolos.html"><img height="110" width="62" src="images/discobolos.logo.transp.gif" border="0"></a></td> <td width="7" height="118" rowspan="2"></td> <td width="482" height="79" colspan="2" valign="top" align="left" xpos="140"><img height="75" width="450" src="images/banner.GIF"></td> <td width="1" height="118" rowspan="2"></td> <td width="1" height="79"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="79"></td> </tr> <tr height="39"> <td width="182" height="39"></td> <td width="300" height="39" valign="top" align="left" xpos="322"><a href="aboutdiscobolos.html"><img height="14" width="267" src="images/divisionofNEW.GIF" border="0"></a></td> <td width="1" height="39"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="39"></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="624" colspan="6" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0" class="style3"> <table border="0" width="100%" bgcolor="black" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td> <table border="0" width="100%" bgcolor="#99ffcc" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="4"> <tr> <td align="center"> <div align="left"> <a href="index.html"><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong> HOME</strong></font></a><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong> &#8226; <a href="articlesindex.html">ARTICLES</a> &#8226; <a href="books.html">BOOKS</a> &#8226; <a href="teflon.html"> THE </a><a href="teflon.html">TEFLON</a><a href="teflon.html"> REPORT</a> &#8226; <a href="mailto:letters@onlinecolumnist.com"> REACTIONS</a> &#8226; <a href="aboutdiscobolos.html">ABOUT DISCOBOLOS</a></strong></font></div> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr height="2"> <td width="133" height="2"></td> <td width="489" height="2576" colspan="3" rowspan="2" align="left" xpos="133" content valign="top" csheight="2573"> <p class="style4">Iran Ups the Ante</p> <p><b><font face="Arial,Geneva,Helvetica">by John M. Curtis</font></b><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular"><b><a href="books.html"><br> </a></b></font><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular"><b> (310) 204-8700</b></font></p> <p><font size="2" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular"><i>Copyright Feb. 8, 2010<br>All Rights Reserved. </i></font>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <span class="style5">D</span>efying calls for Iran to stop enriching uranium, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran s Atomic Energy Organization, to increase to 20% enriched uranium.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Iran faces tough new sanctions in the U.N. Security Council for thumbing its nose at a proposal to allow third parties, notably Russia and France, to enrich Iran s uranium out of the country.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> We will hand over an official letter to the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] tomorrow, informing the agency that we will start making 20 percent enriched fuel from Tuesday, Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran&#39;s nuclear chief, told Iran s Arabic-language state television, al Alam.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>President Barack Obama gave Tehran until the end of 2009 to follow IAEA and U.N. Security Council demands to stop enriching uranium.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Ahmadinejad s latest provocation is designed to call the West&#39;s bluff.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Past threats by the U.S. and Israel have done little deter Tehran from aggressively enriching uranium.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> Former President George W. Bush showed little stomach for calling Tehrna s bluff and backing up tough talk with costly new sanctions or a military intervention.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it plain that Israel considers a nuclear-armed Iran an existential threat, reserving all options, including bombing its nuclear facilities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>State Dept. officials, in the Bush and Obama administrations, have tried to restrain Israel from precipitous actions, warning that a bombing campaign could create a regional war and send the world economy into a tailspin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates believes it s not to late to get Tehran back to the bargaining table.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>He wants the U.N. Security Council to stand united against Tehran s latest shenanigans.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Gates believes there s still time for Ahamadinejad, known for playing chicken with the West, to back down.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> If the international community will stand tougher and bring pressure to bear on the Iranian government, I believe there is still time for sanctions and pressure to work, said Gates, ignoring recent diplomatic moves that have antagonized veto-wielding Security Council member China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Recent Defense Department deals with Taiwan and Obama s decision to meet with Tibet s exiled leader Dali Lama at the White House practically guarantees that China will not go along with more U.N. sanctions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> It increase the likelihood of stronger sanctions but the Chinese are still the big question mark, said Gary Smith, director of the American Academy think tank in Berlin, believing China is still Iran s ace-in-the-hole.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Without China agreeing to more sanctions, the Security Council has no leverage.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Ahamadienjad plays a carefully calculated game of chess, knowing full well that China, and probably Russia, will not go along with tough new sanctions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> It may be that the sanctions screw needs to be or can be turned here and there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>We need to consider very carefully what impact our options could have, said German Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, failing to admit China and Russia s position.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Ahamdinejad consideres Iran a nuclear power, with all the rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to complete the nuclear fuel cycle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>He considers Western attempts to control Iran s nuclear enrichment program  bullying, using it as a political rallying cry to consolidate power after winning a disputed June 13, 2009 election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Ahmadinejad has been consumed with Iran s repressive Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia in a brutal crackdown on protesters.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Looking at the big picture, Ahamdinejad needs to pick a fight with the West to divert attention away from his punishing crackdown and growing protest movement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Picking a fight with the U.S. and U.N. Security Council helps camouflage a growing protest movement that could topple the mullah-dominated government, led by Iran s Supreme Religious Leader Ali Khamenei.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Western nations get easily sucked into Ahamadinejad s domestic propaganda machine, where he pits himself against the West to distract the domestic audience from his vicious repression.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Ahmadinejad insisted that for any deal with the West all fuel must be exchanged simultaneously and Iran would determine the quantities involved, both conditions look unacceptable to U.N. or U.S.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> Because China leans away from supporting more sanctions, it gives Ahmadinejad more leverage with the West.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><span style="mso-tab-count:1">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Tehran s continued recalcitrance on its nuclear enrichment program plays well to a domestic audience, too busy digesting the government s cold-blooded repression on pro-reform protesters looking to evict Ahmandinejad and the mullah s regime from power.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> Threatening to up Iran s enrichment process from 3.5% to 20%, Ahamadinejad puts more bargaining pressure on the U.S. and U.N.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span> I don t think there s any doubt really that they d be able to manage that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>There d be some doubt about I suppose about the time it would take, said Garth Evans, co-chair of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, agreeing that Tehran could get closer to weaponizing uranium.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Obama s latest arm s deal with Taiwan and scheduled meeting with the Dali Lama practically guarantees that China will not support more sanctions in the U.N. Security Council.</p> <bAbout the Author</u> <bAbout the Author</u> <bAbout the Author</u> <bAbout the Author</u> <bAbout the Author</u> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b>John M. Curtis</b> writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>He s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author <i>of <a href="books.html">Dodging The Bullet</a></i> and <i><a href="books.html">Operation Charisma</a></i>.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> </td> <td width="1" height="2576" rowspan="2"></td> <td width="1" height="2"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="2"></td> </tr> <tr height="2574"> <td width="133" height="2574" valign="top" align="left" xpos="0"><img height="172" width="111" src="images/johninframe3.jpg"></td> <td width="1" height="2574"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="2574"></td> </tr> <tr height="1" cntrlrow> <td width="133" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="133" height="1"></td> <td width="7" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="7" height="1"></td> <td width="182" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="182" height="1"></td> <td width="300" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="300" height="1"></td> <td width="1" height="1"><spacer type="block" width="1" height="1"></td> <td width="1" height="1"></td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2" width="597"> <tr> <td><font size="1" face="Arial,Geneva,Helvetica"> <hr noshade size="1"> </font><a href="index.html"><font face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular" size="2"><strong> Homecobolos> <p><font size="2" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular">©1999-2005 <a href="aboutdiscobolos.html"> Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.</a><br> (310) 204-8300<br> All Rights Reserved. </font></td> </tr> </table> </center> </body> </html>